000 ABNT20 KNHC 072351 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI 000 ABNT20 KNHC 072351 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI