000
ABNT20 KNHC 051148
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART