000
ABNT20 KNHC 031752
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG