000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JAMAICA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE