000
ABNT20 KNHC 280546
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE 
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING WITHIN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.   SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.
 
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN