000
ABNT20 KNHC 192331
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH