000
ABNT20 KNHC 192039
TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.  CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH