000
ABNT20 KNHC 211741
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNS
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THIS SYSTEM...INDICATE
THE CIRCULATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A
WIND GUST TO 48 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE ISLAND OF ST. LUCIA
DURING A HEAVY SQUALL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA