000
ABNT20 KNHC 181751
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1515 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN