000
ABNT20 KNHC 162008
TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART