000
ABNT20 KNHC 100534
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARDS ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA IS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH
UPPER-AIR...DOPPLER RADAR...AND SATELLITE INFORMATION...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART