000
ABNT20 KNHC 092333
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS
REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH