000
ABNT20 KNHC 220538
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN