000
ABNT20 KNHC 190542
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER THIS AREA...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A MORE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF JAMAICA...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART