000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA. 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN