000
ABNT20 KNHC 222333
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS