000
ABNT20 KNHC 220535
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.     

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.     

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE