000
ABNT20 KNHC 201146
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRED...IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG