000
ABNT20 KNHC 192333
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. 
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DIMINISHED.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN