000
ABNT20 KNHC 190517
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA