000
ABNT20 KNHC 181730
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL SUPPORT
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE