000
ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN