000
ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA