000
ABNT20 KNHC 172343
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
HAS FORMED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRED.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN