000
ABNT20 KNHC 162329
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG