000
ABNT20 KNHC 160537
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. 
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH