000
ABNT20 KNHC 152333
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH