000
ABNT20 KNHC 121428
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT..AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN