000
ABNT20 KNHC 111733
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CENTERED
OVER NEW JERSEY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SURFACES PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA