000
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN