000
ABNT20 KNHC 011751
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE
LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE