000
ABNT20 KNHC 011148
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS TO GALE FORCE EAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED AT THE
SURFACE.   THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.  

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE