000
ABNT20 KNHC 311755
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH