000
ABNT20 KNHC 250534
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 275
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN A DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA