000
ABNT20 KNHC 140553
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN