000
ABNT20 KNHC 132340
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS
LOCATED 1385 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS
AND REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IF AT ALL...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA