000
ABNT20 KNHC 211804
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 25 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN