000
ABNT20 KNHC 211157
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN