000
ABNT20 KNHC 192350
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH