000
ABNT20 KNHC 190533
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN