000
ABNT20 KNHC 181135
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EXTENDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. 
WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN