000 ABNT20 KNHC 181759 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB