000
ABNT20 KNHC 181145
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ARUBA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WILL SPREAD
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA....BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING
THUNDERSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER WATER. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE STEADILY FALLING IN THE AREA AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. 
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ 
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB/AVILA