000
ABNT20 KNHC 170545
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN 
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING 
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
EXPECTED SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATE TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. 
REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. 
   
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ 
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA