000
ABNT20 KNHC 052106
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY AND WILL BE MOVING INLAND
SHORTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THIS LOW HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. 

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 850
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE