000
ABNT20 KNHC 050202
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ROUGHLY ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS.  THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  ANY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. 

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 950
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE