000
ABNT20 KNHC 042109
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION IS DIMINISHING. 
HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS.  THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  ANY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. 

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1025
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE