000
ABNT20 KNHC 041515
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IS ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN CANCELED.  HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED ON THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. 

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN