000
ABNT20 KNHC 040203
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS
MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION TODAY...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1250
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME