000
ABNT20 KNHC 252129
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST.
CROIX IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN